J.P. Morgan Investable Indices

GBP/USD forecast: Pound stays calm

GBP/USD forecast: Pound stays calm

Fundamental Pound forecast for today

Sterling is focused on foreign factors and ignores domestic negative data

The GBP is still moving according to foreign factors because of the lack of important events in the economic calendar and expectations of the virtual gathering of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole. Investors pay no attention to the negative factors associated with Brexit, twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit), and the first-ever excess of the UK national debt over £2 trillion. Forex analysts suggest that if the euro breaks higher than $1.2 and moves on towards $1.25, the sterling will easily reach $1.35.
The options market is surprisingly stable without any response to Brexit issues. A year ago, the pound volatility will higher than that of the Mexican peso, and the market was shaken. The sterling volatility over the next 3 months is below the average for the last 5 years and slightly above the euro volatility. Taking into account that the EU-UK talks are close to the critical point, the market stability looks surprising. It suggests that either investors are confident in a soon Brexit deal or they do not expect that any of the parties will add uncertainty. However, a 60% likelihood of a Brexit deal doesn’t rule out a 40% chance of a no-deal divorce. It seems that after any failure in the previous negotiations, investors expect a breakthrough in each next round.
According to JP Morgan, a no-deal Brexit will contract the UK GDP by 5.5%, and the UK economy is already in a recession. There are several bearish drivers for the sterling. The twin deficits, the Conservatives’ discontent with the growth of the UK national debt, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, and the potentially vulnerable labor market due to the expiration of the financial aid package in October. According to Bloomberg, the programs, which have protected four million jobs should end in October. That could hit the labor market, slow down the GDP in the fourth quarter, and result in a boost of the UK QE by £100 billion.

Dynamics of UK jobs supported by state programs

Source: Bloomberg
So, the pound has many flaws. However, it has caught the tailwinds and responds to the increase in the global risk appetite and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the US dollar through the average inflation targeting. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell may not announce such a plan in Jackson Hole. Furthermore, the S&P500 may not be close to the all-time highs for a long time. According to the majority of 200 experts surveyed by Reuters, global stock indexes at the end of 2020 are likely to be lower than the levels hit in February, which means a correction down from the current levels.

Dynamics of GBP/USD and S&P 500

Source: Trading Economics
In my opinion, investors ignore the UK's negative domestic factors because they are focused on Powell’s upcoming speech. If he announces the Fed’s average inflation targeting, the GBP/USD may break through the August highs and continue rallying up to 1.337 and 1.35. Otherwise, the sterling could go down below the support at 1.315.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
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Turkey’s banking watchdog said it had launched an investigation into JP Morgan and other banks over complaints it received after the lira plunged more than 4 percent and the main share index fell sharply on Friday

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 53%. (I'm a bot)
ISTANBUL - Turkey's banking watchdog said it had launched an investigation into JP Morgan and other banks over complaints it received after the lira plunged more than 4 percent and the main share index fell sharply on Friday.
The BDDK watchdog said on Saturday it received complaints that a report JP Morgan published on Friday hurt the reputation of Turkish banks and caused volatility in financial markets.
The Capital Markets Board of Turkey also said it had launched a probe after receiving complaints that a JP Morgan report was "Misleading" and caused speculation on the Istanbul bourse.
The central bank said on Friday it was suspending one-week repo auctions "For a period of time", a policy tightening move to squeeze market liquidity and support the lira.
A copy of the JP Morgan report seen by Reuters said it saw a high risk that the lira would decline after local elections set for 31 March, recommending clients to go 'long' on the U.S. dollar.
The watchdog did not say which those banks were, or if they were Turkish or foreign.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: bank#1 Friday#2 Morgan#3 lira#4 decline#5
Post found in /worldnews, /Forex and /Economics.
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